Data Analysis
Mbappé Had the Better Season. Dembélé Had the Better Trophy Haul. Yamal Should Still Win the Ballon d'Or.
Two players can out-argue him on numbers and medals. Neither of them won a World Cup.
Start with the case against Lamine Yamal, because it's a real one. Through 2025/26, he was outscored in his own league. He was outscored in the Champions League. At the World Cup that decides this year's award, he managed one goal in eight games — by far the quietest tournament of any player in this conversation. On pure output, he's third of three.
 Mbappé |
 Yamal |
 Dembélé |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| League goals | 25 | 16 | 10 |
| League assists | 5 | 11 | 7 |
| Champions League goals | 15 | 6 | 8 |
| World Cup goals | 10 | 1 | 6 |
| Club trophies 2025/26 | None | La Liga | Ligue 1 + Champions League |
| World Cup result | Semi-final | Champion | Semi-final |
Mbappé's case is built entirely on being the best player on the pitch, repeatedly: the top scorer of the three domestically, the top scorer of the three in the Champions League (15 goals in 11 games), the top scorer of the three at the World Cup (10 in 8) — and Real Madrid still finished the season with nothing to show for it. Dembélé's case is built on team silverware: PSG won the Ligue 1-and-Champions League double, their second straight European title, with him playing a genuine part in it.
What each club won in 2025/26
- Paris Saint-Germain — Ligue 1 champions (5th straight) and Champions League champions (2nd straight)
- Barcelona — La Liga champions; out in the Copa del Rey semi-final and the Champions League quarter-final
- Real Madrid — La Liga runners-up; eliminated early in the Copa del Rey and in the Champions League quarter-final. No major trophy.
And then there's the World Cup, which both of them lost.
Mbappé scored more at this World Cup than Yamal did. Dembélé scored more too. Both of them are still watching Yamal's highlight reel from the final, not their own.
Spain won the tournament for the first time since 2010, beating France — Mbappé and Dembélé's team — 2-0 in the semi-final, then Argentina 1-0 in the final. Yamal's individual night in that final was quiet. It didn't need to be anything else. He's eighteen years old with a World Cup winner's medal, and almost nothing else in football outranks that line on a résumé — not a league title, arguably not even the Champions League.
What the Ballon d'Or jury is actually instructed to weigh
- Individual performance — decisive, impressive displays over the season. This is Mbappé's entire case.
- Team achievements and trophies won — a World Cup win is about as heavy as this gets, which is Yamal's case. A Champions League-and-league double is also a serious answer here, which is Dembélé's — and the reigning Ballon d'Or winner's, a fact that's gone surprisingly unmentioned this time around.
- Class and fair play — conduct on and off the pitch.
Mbappé's résumé leans almost entirely on the first criterion. Yamal's leans on the second — and a World Cup medal is about as heavy as that criterion gets.
Mbappé can point to the stat sheet. Dembélé can point to two trophies and the medal he's defending. Yamal can point to the only photo that will still be on the front page in twenty years.
The full 2026 shortlist
Mbappé, Yamal and Dembélé are only three of the 30 nominees for this year's award.
All 30 nominees
- Lamine Yamal (Barcelona), Ousmane Dembélé (Paris Saint-Germain), Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid), Harry Kane (Bayern Munich), Rodri (Manchester City), Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (Paris Saint-Germain), Lionel Messi (Inter Miami), Fabián Ruiz (Paris Saint-Germain), Pau Cubarsí (Barcelona), Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid), Michael Olise (Bayern Munich), Erling Haaland (Manchester City), Marc Cucurella (Chelsea), Luis Díaz (Bayern Munich), Bruno Fernandes (Manchester United), Gabriel (Arsenal), Achraf Hakimi (Paris Saint-Germain), Sadio Mané (Al Nassr), Marquinhos (Paris Saint-Germain), Lautaro Martínez (Inter Milan), Nuno Mendes (Paris Saint-Germain), João Neves (Paris Saint-Germain), Willian Pacho (Paris Saint-Germain), Julián Quiñones (Al-Qadsiah), Declan Rice (Arsenal), William Saliba (Arsenal), Ferran Torres (Paris Saint-Germain), Dayot Upamecano (Bayern Munich), Vinícius Júnior (Real Madrid), Vitinha (Paris Saint-Germain).
Who do you think wins?
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See the full 2026 shortlist and vote →